The Unsustainable Welfare Bill, UK Financial Services, Joke for the Month

The Welfare Bill keeps rising

I struggle to understand why the forecasts for the Welfare Bill show that it is ballooning to astronomical sums of money that we clearly can't afford, despite the House just voting not to make many cuts. Then I saw this graph in the Spectator.  It explains the numbers but not Why.

It shows the increase in the number of claimants over the last 3 years. By far the largest category, 'CTA' or Common Travel Area, is basically regular UK citizens (and Irish people who live here). According to data released by the Department for Work and Pensions on July 15, 2025, households with a single person and no children received the lowest average monthly payment of £740. At the other end of the scale, couples with children received the highest average payment of £1,290 per month. So let's say it's around £1,000 per claimant per month to make the maths easier. The increase in the last years for the largest category, CTA, is 2 million people. That means an extra £24 billion pounds is now being paid out just in that category! To give some context, the annual budget for working age benefits is £117.6bn and disability benefits are £90.4bn.

So the question is not whether this is sustainable (it most clearly is NOT) but more about why on earth on the numbers shooting up like this? Why do more than 1 in 5 people between the ages of 16 and 64 claim some from of benefit? By July 2022, there were 30,000 new claimants a month, double that of the previous year. That's 1,000 new recipients of benefits EVERY SINGLE DAY!  We are heading in a very dangerous direction very rapidly and the House just voted to reduce by not very much following a rebellion of Labour MPs who don;t want any cuts to benefits.

People are very upset by the number of immigrants coming to 'sponge off our benefits system' but the stark reality is that 95% of NEW claimants are regular Brits who have full citizens' rights. 

The UK Stock Market may become irrelevant

The decline in the value of the UK Stock Market as a percentage of global markets is probably inevitable as the emerging markets develop and is not necessarily a bad thing. BUT, UK government policy has allowed the UK to decline at a faster rate than necessary. 

Graphic from Visual Capitalise showing the value of global markets

In 2023, financial services contributed £208.2 billion to the UK economy, which accounted for 8.8% of the total economic output. 

In the first quarter of 2024, there were 1.17 million jobs in the financial services sector, representing 3.1% of all jobs in the UK.  When related professional services such as legal and accounting are included, this figure rises to over 2.4 million people. 

The total tax contribution of the financial and related professional services industry reached a record £110.2 billion, equating to 12.3% of total UK tax receipts. That equates to over 60% of the total NHS budget. [data gathered by Gemini].

So that's 7% of all jobs creating over 12% of our tax receipts. More of that please!

The UK is the world's largest net exporter of financial services, making it absolutely critical to the UK's economic success.

Yet, we have allowed it to whither. Look at these statistics gathered by David Kempton using Chat GPT:

• In the UK 26% of the adult population invests in quoted companies; in the US 62% invest directly or through their retirement accounts
• Foreign investors own 57% of UK shares, pension funds 6%, funds and institutions 26%, and individuals 11%
• Since 2013 the number of listed companies on all UK markets has decreased from 2,448 to 1,836 – a decline of 25%. The AIM market is down from 1,700 in 2007 to 700 today
• In 2024, 88 companies left the market with only 18 new IPOs (initial public offerings)
• In 2000, UK pension funds had 48% of their £3trn of assets in UK equities – now only 6%
• BP and Shell are on price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8.5 times, compared to Exxon Mobil and Chevron on more like 13 times. This 50% variation is typical of the increased valuation of US over UK stocks across the respective equity sectors

What is the government waiting for? Why do financial services often still have a poor reputation? 

The London Stock Exchange Group has its HQ in Paternoster Square, St Pauls.

Individuals should be encouraged to invest sensibly. AIM type companies should be celebrated and encouraged (the government removed half of the IHT tax break on AIM companies last year!). Investing should be taught in schools! We should aim to match the USA where 62% of adults invest in stocks and shares.

The City of London is known globally and needs to be promoted. Red tape needs to be reduced, costs of trading and doing business needs to be slashed and there needs to be a huge PR and marketing campaign to put British Financial Services firmly back on the map. Let's expand please!

Joke for the Month

Do you think humans eat more bananas than monkeys?

Don't know?

Well generally humans don't eat monkeys.